In 100 years, will Cancel Culture be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?
In 100 years, will Cancel Culture be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?
Plus
11
Ṁ2342123
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Conditional on humans existing in a sort of society similar to today's.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
In 100 years, will Effective Altruism be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?
73% chance
By the beginning of 2040, will there be widespread agreement that social media "cancellation" was a harmful social phenomenon?
67% chance
Will human civilization have altered into an unrecognizable state by 2100?
44% chance
By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?
59% chance
Will there be an AI culture war in 2025?
28% chance
Will non-consensual unkindness be effectively banished from Earth by 2100?
16% chance
By 2030 will 𝕏 show clear evidence of becoming a collective consciousness?
45% chance
Will humanity still exist in 2100?
85% chance
By 2100, will there be a new thing people use as their go-to example of maximal evil/tragedy to replace the Nazis/Holocaust?
45% chance
Will memes be more culturally and societally significant in 2034 than they were in 2024?
33% chance