Will anyone be "Leader of the Democratic Party" in the next Suffolk/USA Today poll?

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Ṁ200

Jun 1

10%

chance

ALL

Question:

Will anyone be at or above 15% in a poll asking "Who is the current leader of the Democratic Party?"

Background

A recent Suffolk/USA Today poll found that almost half of respondents answered the question "[...W]ho do you now see as the leader of the Democratic Party?" with "Don't Know" (29.6%) or "Nobody" (19.4%). Kamala Harris came in as a distant third-most popular answer (10.3%) and Hakeem Jeffries in fourth (9.1%). Will any single person be above 15% in the next poll with this question?

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if any one person is at or above 15% in a Suffolk/USA Today poll with this question. Resolves NO if no one in the next poll with this question is at or above 15%. If this question is not asked again in a poll released before June, this market resolves N/A. If there is a similar-but-differently-worded question in a future Suffolk/USA Today poll, it will be enough to resolve this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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filled a Ṁ20 NO at 40% order2mo

Very interesting question

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

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