A US federal judge will be impeached by end of 2025
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21
Ṁ4037Dec 31
16%
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1W
1M
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Applies to any federal judge, including district, appeal, or supreme. Resolves YES on vote to impeach in the house, not conviction. Resolves NO at end of 2025.
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Based on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_judges, the average rate seems to be about 0.3 impeachments per year. Assuming a Poisson distribution would put the odds at about 86%. Intuitively, that seems unreasonable.
@UnconditionalProbability ... It was unreasonable since that is a list of investigations, not impeachments.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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