Tontine

Your answer resolves NO when someone notices that you stop using Manifold for 30 days and posts a comment to that effect. Using Manifold means making a bet or trade.

The market resolves in the following cases:

There is only one person left.
Everyone left agrees to end the tontine and divide the pool.
I am unable to continue running the market or hand it over to someone else.

Whenever the market resolves, it resolves equally to all remaining people.

I will not bet in this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Fun

#Tontine Prophecy

#Commitment Devices

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

Get

1,000

and

3.00

25 Comments

22 Holders

245 Trades

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boughtṀ446 NO

@Stralor ?

must have been a misclick. adjusted a few oops. now I must root for your demise

@MartinRandall @firstuserhere and @brubsby resolve ‘NO’

Thanks. I can't resolve till the end though, due to Manifold limits on linked markets.

I can't find brubsby in the list...

bought Ṁ5 NO

bought Ṁ300 NO

brubs has a large limit at 1% there, if anyone is willing to eat it up for an unknown amount of time (:sob: I miss loans)

scratch that, might not be buyable. the UI at least tries to refund you before buying it

Maybe make a no limit order at 1% and see if it cancels out? Sounds like a bug though.

bought Ṁ500 NO

This will resolve NO

RomaboughtṀ260 YES

@Adriana492 why

Looks like there are some users whose profile pages 404. I'm not sure if they just changed their usernames or if some of them are out:

JGY is @jgyou [now fixed]
tiswtr
AlexBGoode is probably @AlexbGoode? [now fixed]
snoozingnewt
SeraphinaNix
dylanslagh (duplicated in the list, actual username @DylanSlagh)

@dreev Yeah, I made a mistake when entering my handle

@AlexbGoode fixed it

Is there a definitive way to confirm date-last-active from a user's profile page? I believe that, for example, @brubsby has been inactive for more than 30 days based on their most recent question/comment/trade, but I'm not sure if there's anything I might be missing.

@dreev Not being in a league is a sure sign.

vansh is already out (not active in the past month)

@jgyou Hmm, I failed to verify if that was true at the time myself and they do seem active currently, so I'm not sure how @MartinRandall will handle this one.

@dreev easily done from the API. Just have to look for an inactivity gap after official start date (January 1st 2024?)

Alternate title: Who's addictive behavior is the most out of hand

DEATH POOL

😈 🥁

@Stralor

Base rate is 1/202. Draw your own conclusions from the fact that I'm still alive in real Tontine, too.

@AlexbGoode you got your username wrong

@bohaska :'(

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