Tontine
Tontine
Basic
35
Ṁ20k
2030
1.7%
@jgyou aka JGY
1.7%
1.4%
1.4%
1.2%
Other
1.1%

Closed to new entries. New entries submitted after 2024-01-01 resolve NO.

Your answer resolves NO when someone notices that you stop using Manifold for 30 days and posts a comment to that effect. Using Manifold means making a bet or trade.

The market resolves in the following cases:

  • There is only one person left.

  • Everyone left agrees to end the tontine and divide the pool.

  • I am unable to continue running the market or hand it over to someone else.

Whenever the market resolves, it resolves equally to all remaining people.

I will not bet in this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 @jskf YES11d

Sound-off, who's still alive?

11d

I’m still alive!

11d

I'm not online enough to have such a streak but I'm alive

11d

@Joshua I am dead

bought Ṁ350 @Nikos NO1mo

I believe @Nikos is out 😭

sold Ṁ4 @JoshuaB YES1mo

Looks like JoshuaB is out too

1mo

SeraphinaNix does not exist any more, did they just change usernames, or are they gone?

8mo
8mo

must have been a misclick. adjusted a few oops. now I must root for your demise

8mo

@MartinRandall @firstuserhere and @brubsby resolve ‘NO’

Thanks. I can't resolve till the end though, due to Manifold limits on linked markets.

8mo

I can't find brubsby in the list...

bought Ṁ5 @brubsby (NO) NO8mo

bought Ṁ300 @brubsby (NO) NO8mo

brubs has a large limit at 1% there, if anyone is willing to eat it up for an unknown amount of time (:sob: I miss loans)

8mo

scratch that, might not be buyable. the UI at least tries to refund you before buying it

8mo

Maybe make a no limit order at 1% and see if it cancels out? Sounds like a bug though.

answered1y
@firstuserhere (NO)
bought Ṁ500 @firstuserhere (NO) NO12mo

This will resolve NO

RomaboughtṀ260@roma YES
1y

Looks like there are some users whose profile pages 404. I'm not sure if they just changed their usernames or if some of them are out:

  • JGY is @jgyou [now fixed]

  • tiswtr

  • AlexBGoode is probably @AlexbGoode? [now fixed]

  • snoozingnewt

  • SeraphinaNix

  • dylanslagh (duplicated in the list, actual username @DylanSlagh)

1y

@dreev Yeah, I made a mistake when entering my handle

1y

@AlexbGoode fixed it

1y

Is there a definitive way to confirm date-last-active from a user's profile page? I believe that, for example, @brubsby has been inactive for more than 30 days based on their most recent question/comment/trade, but I'm not sure if there's anything I might be missing.

1y

@dreev Not being in a league is a sure sign.

1y

vansh is already out (not active in the past month)

1y

@jgyou Hmm, I failed to verify if that was true at the time myself and they do seem active currently, so I'm not sure how @MartinRandall will handle this one.

1y

@dreev easily done from the API. Just have to look for an inactivity gap after official start date (January 1st 2024?)

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules