Will malaria-carrying mosquitos be wiped out before the year 2030?
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Ṁ1679
2029
8%
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If malaria-carrying mosquitos are still around on Jan 1, 2030 this market resolves to NO. For the purpose of this market, digital mosquitos and digital malaria parasites do not count. Mosquitos that do not carry malaria do not count.

If mosquitos or malaria are not around but humans or AI are, this market resolves to YES. If so it can resolve YES before 2030.

Otherwise this market does not resolve.

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Even if the tech exists tomorrow governments will take longer than 7 years to implement

@JackHarmening Do gene drives need much implementation, though? Seems like release plus cross fingers.

The animal welfare group is weird here.

How do you define wiped out? If they no longer live in areas above a certain population density? Outside of labs? Nowhere at all?

@RobertCousineau Nowhere at all, extinct.

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