@traders Hey guys, so, 2024 came to an end and that means that its time to resolve this market somehow...

So, first of all, this I guess is the current situation in Toretsk: In Toretsk The Russian Armed Forces are preparing to storm the last line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — Muchnaya (December 30th, 2024)

Also this: Urban battles continue in Toretsk, enemy attempting to break through via Shcherbynivka - Ukraine's Forces (December 31th, 2024)

So...I mean, I think it certainly can't be said that the Toretsk was fully captured during this year, since the battle seems still be ongoing. This is the quote from the second article:

At the same time, can it be said that a "vast majority" of the city was captured, which is the condition I (perhaps sort of mistakenly?) declared as sufficient for a Yes resolution? I mean, I guess the answer is no as well? Though it seems to me that a big part of Toretsk got captured during this year...

Here is a screenshot from a website DeepStateMAP:

- based on this, well I guess the resolution to this market should be a No (didn't get captured)? Like, while a good part seems to moved under Russian control, Ukraine seems to still hold a decent territory of Toretsk, right?

All in all, I think right now I'm resolving No, though next time when creating such a market I guess I'll state terms more clearly or something, 'cause, like, we basically can see something like half of a city captured and...well, probably such facts should have some reflection in a markets resolutions, ideally...

Honestly while writing this I sort of dove deep into this stuff for a moment, and all I can say is all this is f**king awful, war sucks and lets hope there will be more sports markets and less markets like this one in the future. Yeah and I also sort of open for discussion regarding, like, this market's resolution and all. Happy New Year everyone..

@traders allow me please to inform everyone that I guess that this question should resolve Yes the moment Wikipedia and, by extension, some “respected news outlet” starts saying something like “Toretsk was captured”/“a vast majority of Toretsk was captured”. This is what the situation seems to be right now:

@McLovin how do you resolve at which point toretsk is captured? Is this based on all city boundaries controlled by Russia, just the city center, the majority of the city boundaries... And which sources?

@Shifbru honestly I’d love to pretty much trust a Wikipedia page on that. Like, once Wikipedia starts consistently saying that “Toretsk was captured/a vast majority of Toretsk was captured” - I think that would be a good time to resolve.

The thing is - I personally kind of see a bright future for Manifold in being literally a “satellite of Wikipedia”, to a large extent. Like, Manifold is a website/app about betting on the outcomes of important future events, and Wikipedia, in its turn, will have all those outcomes, and it is, like, reputable.

But, of course, there are mistakes on Wikipedia from time to time, so with Toretsk I’m sure I’d check the sources they used, before resolving, and also would announce here, so that some discussion could take place, I guess…

>>Is this based on all city boundaries controlled by Russia, just the city center, the majority of the city boundaries...

So, yeah, one more time: a “vast majority” of a city has to be captured, for a “positive” resolution…