Resolves as yes, specifically, if any unit of Russian OR Ukrainian military defects from central command control.

• Yes: In a 2024 scenario, a Russian or Ukrainian military unit defects after officers openly criticize command, troops refuse missions, the government is in crisis, or there is strong foreign support for the mutiny, for example coupled with severe pay cuts and clear evidence of mutiny planning.

• No: In 2024, all military units remains loyal even in case of political instability because officers support command, troops follow orders, the military receives adequate pay, and there are no signs of mutiny planning or recent mutinies.