Will Nate Silver place a bet on Manifold before the election? | Manifold

Will Nate Silver place a bet on Manifold before the election?

Plus

50

Ṁ13k

Jan 1

2%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Manifold Users

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

bought Ṁ300 NO

@MichaelWheatley This should close on Election Day I think.

@Kraalnaxx I'm tempted to leave it open a week or two late in case the fact comes out after the fact. Any objections from anyone?

bought Ṁ250 YES

He said he did

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Elliot_dev He agreed to do so, didn’t say he did yet

DanboughtṀ250NO

@Elliot_dev In fact he explicitly said he hadn’t yet

@DanMan314 was a joke I think

Is his word so worthless that even after Greeing he would do so that this market should still be at ~20%?

He's too much of a fucking coward to.

@Lorxus LOL he plays poker but is too much of a coward to bet on a play-money prediction market? Suuuuure

Related questions

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

-14% 1d48% chance

Will Manifold think Nate Silver had a bad take before the end of 2024?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?

Will Nate Silver predict the election better than 538, according to a statistical analysis such as a Brier score?

Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

Will Nate Silver win the third contest? Manifold will decide the answer. Manifold will decide the best funniest answer,

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?

Related questions

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?

Will Manifold think Nate Silver had a bad take before the end of 2024?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

Will Nate Silver win the third contest? Manifold will decide the answer. Manifold will decide the best funniest answer,

Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?

Will Nate Silver predict the election better than 538, according to a statistical analysis such as a Brier score?

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules