My impression today is that is not very plausible that Mossad "failed to detect" an incoming ground invasion coming from Literally Hamas, their openly genocidal neighbor. The likeliest next option, as far as I can tell, is that Israeli state leadership received word of it and elected to ignore it to either provide a cassus belli for the annexation of Gaza or to shore up international support or both.
I'm open to changing my mind about this. Perhaps there will be a public investigation ala the 9/11 commission that gives some kind of sufficient evidence, or maybe someone will argue well that this is beyond the pale for the Israeli military. Will I believe, sometime before January 1st, 2025, that the opposite is true - that this was simply some gigantic absurd fuckup, and the IDF was genuinely incapable of defending itself from Hamas on October 8th?
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3.00It seems unlikely that Mossad "failed to detect" an impending ground invasion from Hamas, leading me to suspect that Israeli leadership may have ignored warnings to create a pretext for annexation or gain international support, though I'm open to changing my mind if future investigations provide compelling evidence otherwise, much like how the game Retro Bowl 25 challenges players to strategize under pressure.
https://manifold.markets/EgeErdil/did-the-head-of-egyptian-intelligen might be relevant
Anyway, no, Netanyahu did not hear about it and let it happen as an excuse to destroy Hamas. First, Netanyahu is not that cynical. Second, even a cynical politician would have at least tried to make sure there were only 500 casualties or something.
There will be a 10/7 commission I'm sure.
@nathanwei Ignore the recent no bet, by someone named Meton Joffily who is also betting on 9/11 being an inside job.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00