Manifold has leaked its users real names, email addresses, click activity, private markets, manalinks, ip addresses, and likely even its own Firebase admin key at one point. As far as I know, private messages and credit card numbers are the only user information that hasn't been leaked yet.

Resolves YES if Manifold leaks anyone's credit card number and they either confirm that it is real or I am able to charge it. NO by default at end of 2024.

Must be Manifold's fault. Sending your credit card number through PM and that getting leaked would resolve Will Manifold leak any private messages before the end of 2024?NO‌ but it was your choice to use a likely-compromised channel so wouldn't resolve this market.

Anyone buying mana through standard Stripe interface and subsequently getting their credit card number leaked without knowing would count as a credit card leak.

Other Manifold leak markets:

Will Manifold leak everyone's private markets as part of deprecation? (2023)YES‌

Will Manifold leak everyone's private markets again? (v2, 2023)YES‌

Will private markets be accessible through API? (2023)YES‌

Will there be evidence of unauthorised access to Manifold's Firebase database?NO‌

Will Manifold experience a serious security breach that compromises at least one user's personal data by the end of 2024?YES‌

Will Manifold leak any private messages before the end of 2024?NO‌