By manifest 2024 there will be a new product vertical for prediction markets/forecasting. [Manifold Poll]
Basic
7
Ṁ298Oct 3
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to Manifold poll:
There is a clear new product vertical for prediction markets or forecasting that wasn't around last year.
Agree
Disagree
I don't know
Question poorly framed
Resolves to yes %. If 25% say question poorly framed resolves N/A
Current product verticles:
Political prediction markets
Geopolitical prediction markets
Sports betting markets
Forecasting aggregators
Forecasting consultancies
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
In Jan 2028, will prediction markets occupy a new product vertical? [Resolves to Poll]
14% chance
Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024 or 2025?
30% chance
Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?
68% chance
There will be a new business vertical that uses prediction markets as a core feature by 2030
53% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
33% chance
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
50% chance
Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
54% chance
Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?
Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊
38% chance
Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
13% chance