Interesting..

https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/what-now-after-polymarket-ceo-raid/

Also, from CEO of Coinbase, "Does not look good..."

Also, Shayne Copeland's claim in his Tweet is that this was, "all partisan," (meaning, the Democrats are after him) and yet...see photo:

We don't really know all of the facts, but saying, "this is all partisan," sort of sounds like he's trying to pull a Marc Rich and get a pardon from Trump maybe.

Hopefully it's all a misunderstanding, but having the Polymarket CEO getting raided by the FBI when it's the largest and most successful commercial prediction market platform ever, does not bode super well for prediction markets going mainstream.

On the other hand, maybe this is really just chess between billionaires, Peter Thiel puts Shayne Copeland in charge of this effort, knowing that it's illegal ahead of time, let's the 20-something guy take the fall, restructure the business for the next go-around or whatever. Who knows.

https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/polymarket-volumes-and-users-plummet-after-trump-wins-election/ ...

Polymarket volumes plummet 84% after US elections. Here’s what experts say is next for prediction markets

What’s next for Polymarket now that its biggest political bet has disappeared?

When the tide is out, you can see who is swimming naked. They were only at 40,000 users for the most insane election of our time thus far, now they are back down to 24,000. Election markets tend to be the biggest that prediction markets ever see, every 4 years. There is a super small chance we're going to get to 1M for the next election...could happen, but it's not 75% likely, it's probably more like 5% likely.

Obligatory mention of my own open source prediction market, which I created because I see them as being more of a niche community tool rather than a massive platform. https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict

@PatrickDelaney If Twitter acquires Polymarket/Manifold or builds their own, which might be more like a 50/50% chance of happening, then that platform might get 1M users, but it also might just get 100k users long-term after an initial bump, and we might not have insights for their actual usage. So I'm not sure how that would affect the resolution of this market.

WSJ: “prediction markets have finally shown signs of going mainstream”

prediction markets aka gut-network xD

Related:

"Will Polymarket's daily trading volume reach or exceed $200 million at any point during the calendar year 2025?"

https://manifold.markets/IB/will-polymarkets-daily-trading-volu

After this election cycle and the constant features in Mainstream Media eg Bloomberg having a live odds tracker on the front page, Kalshi climbing to #1 on the App Store with Polymarket following in the Top 10, it's very safe to say mainstream adoption is underway.

@SimranRahman

https://www.foxnews.com/media/jen-psaki-thinks-biden-trump-debate-could-collapse-im-still-skeptic

will people bet on them? no. it will always be a degen / expert thing.

Do superhuman AI agents count as users?

@jim no

@Shump what if they're 'ems', accurate emulations of humans?

@jim It's already going to be hard to get the sources to resolve this. I'm going to go with whatever numbers are reported. If the website can't tell whether they're human or AI then I'll just take what they say. For the same reason, bots might get counted. However, if there are different numbers, or a good reason to think that the number given isn't reliable since it includes a large amount of non-human users, then that wouldn't count.

@Shump ok thanks I understand

Does Reddit count? Why or why not?

@colorednoise they do have a prediction market feature

@colorednoise No. That component is not substantial enough. Way less substantial than Betfair.

@colorednoise btw, did you see this in your home page? I was testing something just now.

@Shump nope, notifications