If no other big events happen and there is a big inter-community listening exercise, will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?
Basic
7
Ṁ2612025
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?
10% chance
The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.
56% chance
Will EA have an out-group-based conflict resolution / 'social ground truth' body before 2025?
8% chance
Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?
24% chance
Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2024?
89% chance
Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?
79% chance
Will any other large AI organization have a big public leadership conflict before 2028?
68% chance
Will America remain a two-party system until 2050?
68% chance
Will America remain a two-party system until February 2040?
67% chance
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$1M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025?
30% chance