In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,
In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,
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What about a company focused on an LLM when it was founded, grows quickly, but has branched out to a bunch of other stuff by the time it's worth $5bn? (Follow-ups: What if the LLM part of the company is valued at more than $5bn on its own? What if an LLM company gets bought by Oracle for $4.9bn but then clearly grows to be worth more?)
I bet if you give me between an hour and 6 months I will be able to bring you 5. Another good question would be if there are 10 between now and 2030, will there still be 10 in 2030?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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