This resolves YES for all options which are true of the polling day for the first UK General Election following 4th July 2024. Otherwise options resolve NO three weeks before their named date, at which point it is too late under current UK law to call an election.
1,000
3.002.2 million have signed this petition calling for another election, if anyone thinks it'll pay off then you can buy "before 01/01/2026" at 1% right now. Or the pre-2028 options which are all trading very cheap!
Under the law passed during the last parliament, the date that the next election must be legally held by is 25 working days (35 ordinary days), five years after the formal meeting of the Parliament. This Parliament will formally meet on Wednesday for the King's Speech (July 17th 2024), therefore the last date for the election will be August 21st 2029 (a Tuesday), therefore the last practical date will be August 16th 2029 (a Thursday)
Yeah, that’s the reason I didn’t include a 1/1/2030 option as barring something insane it should default to 100%. TBH I suspect the actual percentages should be closer to 50% / 50% on the 2029 option but four years is a long time in politics.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00