Following reporting, this market resolves YES if the Labour Party have u-turned and confirmed by market close that the WFA will be available for winter 2025. Does not require legislation passed to resolve YES, a press statement is sufficient.
Increases to means-tested pensioner payments or other related benefits will not trigger a YES. It must be a full cancellation of the previous revocation, restoring the WFA policy and keeping the payment at a similar level to it was previously.
1,000
3.00I'm not trading on this market because it's probably going to involve a subjective resolution, but right now this seems incredibly high? As per the description, this requires a full revocation and return to universal WFA. Right now Labour are talking about an increase to the number of pensioners receiving fuel payments through what sounds like tweaking the eligibility criteria, which is a pretty clear NO resolution unless something changes.
@Noit Seems like a slightly unfortunate clash between title and description. I think it's reasonable to say that what they announced in June is a "U-turn", but I agree with you that it clearly shouldn't count per the description.
Given that they've already announced a massive climbdown, it seems very unlikely to me that they'll do a second climbdown and go all the way back to how it was before. My true estimate for this market is 10%. I think the only reason I'm not betting it down that far is because irrationally it feels a bit scary to move a market so much.