Will Holly Elmore be cancelled by 2025
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13
Ṁ4199
Jan 1
9%
chance

The details the same as this question: <https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/will-i-be-cancelled-by-2025>. Consent of the participant can be found here: <https://twitter.com/ilex_ulmus/status/1535418959918407680> . This question resolves yes if Holly Elmore (@ilex_ulmus on Twitter) is "cancelled" in the next few years." This would involve things like

- her being dismissed from her job due to non-work-related factors

- her being shunned from the EA community

- her EA forum account being deleted without her consent

- etc.

Overall, I will resolve this question according to my best judgment. Because this is a long-term question, I will strive to add liquidity/exit events reasonably regularly or at request (e.g., add liquidity so that people can exit their position, move the probability to where I think it should be, etc.)

Edit: The close date was updated to 2025-01-01 12:00 am
Edit: Grammar.

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Wow this is looking great for me (3%!)

Watching curiously

the grammar in this needs some revision

predictedYES

Not sure what has been going on with her twitter recently, but increasing the probability.

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