Update 2023-09-27: don't bet in this market, instead use https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-i-get-any-new-cavities-after-a .
According to this status, @Aella is going to get Lantern Bioworks's magic germs painted on her teeth. Whether she gets any cavities seems like a decent (though noisy) proxy for whether the germs are in fact magic.
On 2026-01-01, I'll ask Aella whether she got a cavity. She answered my DM asking her permission to create this market, so, by induction, I assume she'll answer that one too! (But if she doesn't within a month, I'll resolve the market N/A.)
1,000
3.00I think this market should be higher than Aella's because it resolves yes based on new cavities after application but before full effectiveness.
I assume you're going to resolve by asking her at the close date, not rely on her happening to post about it?
@WilliamEhlhardt Right, I'll ask her; and if she doesn't respond, I'll resolve N/A. Market description updated.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00