Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2025?
Plus
15
Ṁ994Dec 31
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves Yes if Russia officially states that any territory it regrads as part of the country at the start of 2023 is not part of Russia anymore before January 1, 2025. This question is not about actual control or third-party recognition.
The obvious candidates are the newly annexed regions (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts) and Crimea.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@BTE No, this question is not about control but rather formal cessation. Russia has left Kherson, for example, but still considers the city to be a part of Russia.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
1% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
48% chance
By the end of 2024, will Ukraine still hold any of the Russian territory it currently holds?
94% chance
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?
55% chance
Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2025?
1% chance
Will Russia take more territory than what Ukraine will regain between beginning and EOY 2024
76% chance
Will Russia propose a ceasefire in 2024?
37% chance
Will Ukraine cede any of its territory to Russia by 2025? [150M subsidy]
7% chance
Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?
3% chance
Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?
13% chance