This market will resolve to YES if any evidence (however tenuous) suggesting the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved fowl play is released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
Fowl play includes (but may not be limited to) any involvement of chickens (both live or rubber), eggs or other game, land or water fowl related business. Non-fowl related poultry will not count (I see you Señor Struthioniformes).
Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was fowl play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, gossip rag, and Instagram stories, however a consensus of semi-credible comments may also be used.
For more information about the various forms of fowl see - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fowl
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator notes that this is not a serious market. As an example of the resolution criteria's limits, they stated that a very tenuous link—such as an allegation that Epstein had an egg-shaped penis—would probably be insufficient (but not by much) to resolve the market to YES.
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator has clarified that this market is strictly about fowl (e.g., birds, eggs).
Reports of foul play, in the common sense of wrongdoing, will not be sufficient to resolve this market to YES. The creator noted a separate market exists for that specific term.
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user, the creator has specified how a typo of 'fowl play' (when 'foul play' was intended) would be handled:
A typo in a print publication would resolve the market to YES.
A typo in a digital publication may be sufficient, depending on the prominence of the source and how long the error remains uncorrected.
1,000
3.00For clarification (it's the internet) this is not a serious market
Thus - Epstein allegedly had an egg shaped penis -> his penis is what got him in trouble -> if he were not in trouble he would not have died - Would probably be insufficient to resolve YES, but not by a massive amount...
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer If they instead say there was, "foul play," but not, "fowl play," would that count?
@Quroe - There's a market for that - https://manifold.markets/evan/jeffrey-epstein-foul-play-confirmed?r=UGF1bEJlbmphbWluUGhvdG9ncmFwaGVy
@Quroe I would definitely accept a print publication declaring 'fowl play' when they meant foul play, unsure where I'd stand if digital only (would come down to the major-ness of the publication/how long it took them to correct the error...)
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer You know what? I'll take that chance. I'll set this market to match the other at time of comment.