What city will I spend the most time in over the next 2 years?
What city will I spend the most time in over the next 2 years?
Basic
5
Ṁ142Jan 2
1.5%
New York City
17%
San Francisco
1.9%
Houston
3%
Los Angeles
4%
Bangkok
69%
Taipei
4%Other
My current job is in NYC and I have a lease on an apartment there. However I'm allowed to work remotely except for 1 week per month and have been doing so the last month. My employer also has an office in Houston that would probably count for the 1 week per month rule.
Will group cities by metro area. I'm open to debate on whether e.g. SJC and SFO should count as the same city, based on these lists. Strongly leaning toward SJC = SFO.
Update 2025-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Guaranteed Winner: Taipei
Resolution Date: April 6
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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