Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?
Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?
Plus
32
Ṁ30302030
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I have a hunch that Eliezer Yudkowsky is writing Elon Musk's playbook for innovation through his "dath ilan" posts. So far, Elon Musk has done work on electric vehicles, autonomous cars, and underground tunnel boring, all mentioned in the original "dath ilan" post. Musk has also founded OpenAI based on a view of AI risk that originated with Yudkowsky, but is not endorsed by him today. My question is: when Elon Musk founds another startup, will it involve movable housing (another technology commonly mentioned in the "dath ilan" posts), or will it not?
Here, "movable housing" is defined as any technology that allows houses to be moved between different plots of land, and "involve" is defined as this technology being mentioned in an official statement by the startup within two months of founding.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
13% on any one idea is way too high, just on priors. He's got a lot of people pushing and pulling him in lots of directions, even if he was a big fan of "dath ilan" at one point
predictedYES 2y
The really funny part will be when he, as usual, neglects to spend literally 30 seconds thinking about whether Big Yud's shining virtuous equilibrium is one we have an obvious profiting-path to.
@SranPandurevic No, because that is not his "next startup;" this is a new product from an existing company of his.
@SranPandurevic Might just be for the lulz, but it might not...
Though this does not necessarily imply the "Elon Musk is reading Yudkowsky for his deep tech startup advice:" it could just be that movable housing is a particularly good startup idea.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?
23% chance
What new industry will Elon Musk have a new major company/brand for next?
Will Elon Musk found another billion dollar company by 2030?
48% chance
Which Elon Musk company will IPO next?
Will the next company founded by Elon Musk be incorporated in Delaware?
11% chance
Will Elon Musk get married again by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will Elon musk invest on??
Elon Musk tries to make a space station in next 4 years?
17% chance
Will Elon Musk launch a reality show on Mars, featuring Martian life by 2030?
5% chance
Will Elon Musk get married (yet again) before 2028?
48% chance