Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?
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I have a hunch that Eliezer Yudkowsky is writing Elon Musk's playbook for innovation through his "dath ilan" posts. So far, Elon Musk has done work on electric vehicles, autonomous cars, and underground tunnel boring, all mentioned in the original "dath ilan" post. Musk has also founded OpenAI based on a view of AI risk that originated with Yudkowsky, but is not endorsed by him today. My question is: when Elon Musk founds another startup, will it involve movable housing (another technology commonly mentioned in the "dath ilan" posts), or will it not? Here, "movable housing" is defined as any technology that allows houses to be moved between different plots of land, and "involve" is defined as this technology being mentioned in an official statement by the startup within two months of founding.
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13% on any one idea is way too high, just on priors. He's got a lot of people pushing and pulling him in lots of directions, even if he was a big fan of "dath ilan" at one point

predictedYES

The really funny part will be when he, as usual, neglects to spend literally 30 seconds thinking about whether Big Yud's shining virtuous equilibrium is one we have an obvious profiting-path to.

Does making a Tesla trailer count?

@SranPandurevic No, because that is not his "next startup;" this is a new product from an existing company of his.

@PeterBerggren right, it's in the title :) Interesting that the probability is so high!

@SranPandurevic Might just be for the lulz, but it might not...

Though this does not necessarily imply the "Elon Musk is reading Yudkowsky for his deep tech startup advice:" it could just be that movable housing is a particularly good startup idea.

Why else would he have chosen the name Ilan Musk?
@Tetraspace Because of von Braun's Marsprojekt, for example?

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