https://archive.is/cbWiA - "SpaceX Tender Offer Said to Value Company at Record $210 Billion"
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/11/spacex-valuation-surges-to-350-billion-as-company-buys-back-stock.html - "SpaceX valuation surges to $350 billion as company buys back stock"
Question resolves as YES if before December 12th 2025, there is a Bloomberg article that reports a SpaceX private tender sale, or post money VC investment valuation, or public valuation of more than $450B.
1,000
3.00Even if they don't get the upper stage of Starship reusable, it is already game-changing at this point from a $/kg to LEO perspective. It is going to take a while, but I think the rest of the world will soon realize the opportunity such lift capabilities offer and we will see much more tourism and space manufacturing (capitalizing on micro-g). For the record, the actual Mars stuff is a bit insane, but as a post-rationalist, having a crazy goal like that--to the extent it encourages innovation--is a good thing. The interest in the $350B valuation was very robust according to Musk (who doesn't lie), so I think this target is slightly more likely than not.