Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
Basic
17
Ṁ11922031
59%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the next A Song of Ice and Fire book, The Winds of Winter, is released before the next human sets foot on the Moon.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
52% chance
Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?
51% chance
Will "A Song of Ice and Fire" be completed before "House of the Dragon"?
6% chance
When will "The Winds of Winter" (A song of Ice and Fire) by George R.R. Martin be published?
Will "The Winds of Winter" be published while George R. R. Martin is alive
52% chance
Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?
76% chance
Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?
51% chance
Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2026?
7% chance
When will AI write a widely read version of The Winds of Winter - GOT Book 6?
The Winds of Winter is published in 2025
7% chance