Netanyahu ceases to be prime minister before a permanent Israel-Hamas ceasefire is reached?
Netanyahu ceases to be prime minister before a permanent Israel-Hamas ceasefire is reached?
8
Ṁ235Sep 15
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This market resolves YES if Benjamin Netanyahu is no longer the Prime Minister of Israel before a permanent ceasefire agreement is reached between Israel and Hamas. It resolves NO if a permanent ceasefire agreement is reached while Netanyahu is still prime minister.
A permanent ceasefire is defined as a formal agreement between Israel and Hamas that explicitly states an end to hostilities without a specified end date (not a temporary pause). Netanyahu ceasing to be prime minister includes resignation, removal from office, electoral defeat, or any other means by which he no longer holds the position.
Resolution will be based on reputable news sources such as Reuters, AP, or official government statements.
Sources:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
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Are our predictions accurate?
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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