Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Marco Rubio is the first member of Donald Trump's cabinet (in his second administration) to be fired, to resign, or to otherwise leave his position as Secretary of State. It resolves NO if someone else is the first cabinet member to depart, or if Rubio remains in his position throughout Trump's term, or if all members of Trump's cabinet remain in their position till his second term's end.

Background

Marco Rubio currently serves as Secretary of State in Donald Trump's second administration. Cabinet departures were common during Trump's first term, with multiple officials being fired or resigning. The first cabinet member to leave Trump's first administration was Michael Flynn, who resigned as National Security Advisor in February 2017 after misleading Vice President Mike Pence about his contacts with the Russian ambassador.

Considerations

Recent reports have highlighted tensions within Trump's new cabinet, including a reported confrontation between Rubio and Elon Musk during a cabinet meeting. Additionally, Rubio is facing scrutiny due to a leaked Signal message involving military strategies, which has led to speculation about potential resignations from Trump's cabinet.

• Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is assessing whether the departure of an official (Waltz) will trigger a resolution. This will depend on the creator's determination of who qualifies as a cabinet member.