Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the first year listed (2028, 2032, or 2036) in which a woman wins the Republican presidential primary process and becomes the party's nominee. Resolution will be based on the official Republican National Convention nomination.

The market will resolve N/A if:

• No woman wins the Republican nomination in any of the listed years

• The Republican Party ceases to exist or fundamentally changes its nomination process

• The U.S. presidential election system undergoes fundamental changes that eliminate primary elections

For resolution purposes:

• The candidate must be legally and publicly identified as a woman at the time of nomination

• The candidate must win the majority of delegates and be formally nominated at the Republican National Convention

• Temporary or acting nominations do not count

• Write-in campaigns or third-party nominations do not count

Considerations

• Historical precedent suggests this would be a significant shift - no woman has ever won the Republican nomination

• The Republican Party has traditionally had fewer women candidates in primaries compared to the Democratic Party

• Primary dynamics can change significantly between election cycles, affecting the viability of different candidates

• Party demographics and voter preferences may evolve over the specified timeframe