Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of the Moon before January 1st 2034 (and after 2023)

Questions with the same criteria:

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2025?NO‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2026?2%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2027?5%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2028?14%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2029?48%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?65%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2031?76%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2032?77%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2033?79%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2034?85%‌ (this question)

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2035?87%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2036?86%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2037?82%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2038?90%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2039?90%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2040?93%‌

Lunar orbit questions:

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2025?NO‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?4%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2027?63%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2028?75%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2029?86%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2030?88%‌

Other reference points for human venture on the Lunar surface:

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%‌

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?55%‌

Other questions for 2034:

Will we get AGI before 2034?73%‌

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2034?25%‌

Will we discover alien life before 2034?18%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2034?42%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2034?26%‌

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2034?77%‌

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2034?21%‌

To meet the criteria, the human must be awake for at least ten continuous minutes on the surface of the moon outside of a spacecraft. The human may be wearing a pressure suit or similar device. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute. The safe return of the human is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of leaving the spacecraft to venture onto the Lunar surface, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least 10 continuous minutes before returning to the spacecraft.

The human does not necessarily need to walk, and can use a wheelchair or some other form of mobility device to navigate the Lunar surface. They must be outside of the spacecraft and with either their body or a pressure suit exposed to the Lunar vacuum (or atmosphere if the moon possesses one on this date) in order to fulfill the criteria of this question. If the human is wearing a pressure suit, then the volume of the human must occupy at minimum 30% of the volume of the pressure suit in order to count as a pressure suit and not a spacecraft/vehicle. Either the human's body or pressure suit must make contact with the Lunar surface. If the human exits the craft and enters a space underneath the Lunar surface, such as a cavern or an underground base, then this does not qualify as venturing out onto the Lunar surface. In the case that the human is outside of the spacecraft without a pressure suit, then they must survive on the lunar surface for at least 10 continuous minutes and remain awake with a heartrate of at least 30bpm during that time.

The human venturing onto the Lunar surface must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body, including those enabling the human to survive on the surface of the moon without a pressure suit, is permissible within the context of this question. The human must also have a mass of less than 500kg (can be a cyborg but with some limits).

Image credits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Aldrin_Looks_Back_at_Tranquility_Base_-_GPN-2000-001102.jpg