Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2031.
This question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or distant galaxies.
Questions with the same criteria:
Will we discover alien life before 2025?1%
Will we discover alien life before 2026?4%
Will we discover alien life before 2027?7%
Will we discover alien life before 2028?8%
Will we discover alien life before 2029?11%
Will we discover alien life before 2030?8%
Will we discover alien life before 2031?13% (this question)
Will we discover alien life before 2032?14%
Will we discover alien life before 2033?15%
Will we discover alien life before 2034?18%
Will we discover alien life before 2035?17%
Will we discover alien life before 2036?18%
Will we discover alien life before 2037?19%
Will we discover alien life before 2038?19%
Will we discover alien life before 2039?23%
Will we discover alien life before 2040?25%
Will we discover alien life before 2041?25%
Other questions for 2031:
Will we get AGI before 2031?62%
Will we get ASI before 2031?32%
Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2031?76%
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2031?17%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?27%
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?92%
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?70%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2031?15%
Will a human walk on Mars before 2031?10%
/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo
Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2031?13%
Will AI extend English before 2031?53%
Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?5%
Other reference points for the discovery of alien life:
Will we get room temperature superconductors before we discover alien life?55%
Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?85%
Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?20%
If evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered on Earth, then it must clearly point to the past or present existence of life outside of Earth's biosphere. This lifeform must have existed continuously for at least 1 million years off-Earth.
If evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered elsewhere, then it must have existed continuously outside of Earth's biosphere for at least 1 million years in order to qualify.
If this discovery occurs in multiple steps, then the step that leads to a 90% consensus among the scientific community is considered the "discovery" in the context of this question.
The definition of life in this question includes systems capable of self-replication, storing information and evolving.
Image credits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:James_Webb_Space_Telescope_2009_top.jpg
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