Resolves as YES if 95% of individuals diagnosed with cancer are alive and cancer-free (complete remission) 18 months after initial diagnosis, in a least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy.
In order for this question to resolve as YES, there has to be credible evidence in each qualifying country that this threshold has been reached. This evidence (e.g. clinical studies) must take into consideration patients diagnosed with cancer at least 18 months prior to January 1st 2026.
Questions with the same criteria:
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2025?1%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2026?3% (this question)
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2027?5%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2028?6%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2029?10%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2030?13%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2031?15%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2032?17%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2033?19%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2034?26%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2035?33%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2036?27%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2037?32%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2038?49%
Numeric market:
What year do we get a cure for cancer?
Other questions for 2026:
Will we get AGI before 2026?4%
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2026?6%
Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2026?2%
Will we discover alien life before 2026?4%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2026?4%
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2026?55%
Other reference points for cure for cancer:
Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?68%
Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?20%
Will we get a cure for cancer before we get fusion reactors?23%
The cohorts considered in these studies must be statistically representative of that country's population.
1,000
3.00I might be missing something, but what is the rationale for anybody betting YES? The question assumes that by June 2024 (i.e. in 4 months from now), there are trials that have already enrolled a substantial number of patients for new treatments for many types of cancer that affect a lot of people but that do not currently have high remission in four different countries. This means that the trials need to have already be registered and enrolling patients TODAY. Further all of those trials have to succeed in improving the remission rate substantially. E.g. in the UK the current one year survival across all types of cancer is 70% (this means the 18 month remission is substantially lower as not all who survive are in remission). I'd guess that this this would not resolve YES even if all trials currently running achieved 100% remission as not all cancer types are under investigation in multiple countries.
Also reminding everybody that cancer is not a single disease where a single treatment is likely to provide general cure.
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What is this?
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