Will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set in 2024?
Plus
22
Ṁ1847Jan 1
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to Yes if, in either a live demo or a credible online video, an autonomous robot system is handed a new Lego box that it has not specifically been trained to assemble, and the robot opens the box, looks at the printed instructions, and correctly assembles the set.
This does not have to be a general system; it is fine if the system is specifically trained to do Lego assembly, on other Lego sets. Applying stickers is not required.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
The site gave me some free questions, so I made a multi-year version:
https://manifold.markets/RichardBruns/when-will-a-robot-zeroshot-assemble
Related questions
Related questions
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
62% chance
When will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set?
Will an AI specialized in Lego building be created before the end of 2024?
38% chance
Will a robot be able to assemble LEGOs from a LEGO instruction set by EOY2026?
71% chance
Will there be more than 1000 Lego sets released in 2024?
70% chance
Will 100K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?
65% chance
Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?
45% chance
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2034?
66% chance
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?
59% chance
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?
50% chance