Will Kash Patel be FBI Director?
80
𝕊1323
2025
70%
chance
Start earning real cash prizes today.
Step 1: Verify and claim your free sweepcashṀ
Step 2: Correctly predict on sweepstakes markets.
Step 3: Withdraw winnings!
S1.00
won → $1

This market will be settle as YES if Kash Patel becomes Director of the FBI by the close date of the market.

The market may close early as NO if Trump at some point withdraws his nomination or a consensus of credible reporting indicates the president is no longer pursuing the nomination.

Update: Becoming Acting Director will count.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
bought Ṁ100 NO3d

Wray resigning ahead of time makes the Acting Director path less likely, right? (And doesn't affect anything about Senate confirmation)

Why can’t you delete comments lmao

bought Ṁ106 YES5d

Knock knock

bought Ṁ100 NO11d

If it weren’t a 10 year appointment I would say yes, but I don’t see him getting the votes when you consider how many bonkers things he has said publicly. Like bragging about having read the JFK files on Glen Beck’s podcast. Not even close to the discretion necessary to be FBI director.

bought Ṁ244 YES13d

I think he has been elected

13d

@botbotbotjaja123 He's been nominated by President-elect Trump, but this market can only resolve if he's confirmed by the Senate, which will likely be a controversial process.

14d

Aside from the possibility of the intelligence community digging up something about him, this would seem to be a slam dunk: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kash_Patel

So what might they dig up?

bought Ṁ100 NO

@CraigDemel deleted

8d

@datachef this is false. Appointments can not be filibustered anymore, since 2013. lol

8d

@benshindel my bad. I thought that was just for judges but you are right.

14d

what about Acting FBI director?

14d

@SemioticRivalry it would count

11d

@SemioticRivalry acting FBI director can’t be from outside the agency. That makes no sense. And recess appointment won’t fly for a 10 year appointment.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules