Is Adrian Dittmann more likely than not to be Elon Musk, according to a poll of Manifold users Jan 24-29?

Basic

Ṁ1547

Jan 30

chance

ALL

Background:

Many have speculated that https://x.com/AdrianDittmann is secretly Elon Musk. Will Manifold think this is more likely than not to be true in a Jan 24-29 poll?

Resolution criteria:

Sometime on January 24 (CT), I will create this Manifold poll closing on Jan 29:

Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) more likely than not Elon Musk?

Yes
No
[see results]

If there are more Yes votes than No votes, this market resolves Yes. (A tie resolves NO.)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Elon musk

#️ X (Twitter)

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AFAICT the case for is that he's an Elon stan who sounds kind of like Elon. Is that correct?

@CraigDemel it goes beyond being a stan, he at the very least makes a deliberate effort to seem like Elon.

@Dookis Are you saying that this is stronger proof that he is Elon?

bought Ṁ25 YES

Wait i totally believed the rumors, is he not?

bought Ṁ40 NO

@Bayesian They've talked to each other live on a twitter space before. As for the evidence towards him being Musk, to me it personally seems too convenient, and gives me more the impression that Dittmann is trying to make other people think he's a secret Musk alt. https://x.com/itechnosmith/status/1685230047534129152

@MingCat they don't sound the same

@nikki I agree, the point is that they can't be the same person if they're both talking to each other live, absent shenanigans

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