Will Falcon 9 family of rockets launch to orbit (successfully) more times in 2025 than in 2024?
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9
Ṁ7242026
95%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Falcon 9 Family includes Falcon heavy and Falcon 9.
If by chance there are failures or intentional suborbital flights they do not count to the total.
Number of launches must be more than for yes. If they are equal it does not count as “more than” and no would be correct.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Uh, should increase the chances, no? An anomaly that occurs once in more than 300 flights isn't expected to happen in 2025, so they should be able to get better than 2024 even more easily.
But long term markets that are already high aren't really worth locking mana into
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