Linux market share at or above 5% by 2026?
12
Ṁ1356
Dec 24
10%
chance

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by January 1, 2026, Linux's desktop operating system market share is reported to be 5.00% or higher by a reputable source such as StatCounter . If no such report is available by that date, the market will resolve to "No." The market will close on 25 December to prevent manipulation

  • Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will resolve based on the Linux desktop operating system market share reported for December 2025. This figure must be 5.00% or higher, from a reputable source (e.g., StatCounter), and this report must be available by January 1, 2026.

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Does ChromeOS count towards the Linux desktop share since its Linux just not a community GNU/Linux distro?

@KyleY it is in striking distance (but not over currently) if we include it since it's linux but not if we just count the “Linux” tag

If the question was “will mac have 12% desktop share” then it would make sense to combine “macros” and “OS x” so it's a bit of a gray area. (though still NO rn)

Is this about the percentage at close or does getting above it, at any point, count even if it dips again?

@LiamZ the procentage for December

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