Will a rocket built by Relativity Space ever achieve orbit?
Will a rocket built by Relativity Space ever achieve orbit?
Basic
10
Ṁ3392100
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Achieve orbit means the rocket reaches orbital velocity.
The launch attempt on 8 March 2023 ended with a scrub.
The launch attempt on 11 March 2023 ended with a scrub.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
I won't be able to watch this launch live so this market won't be resolved before this evening, say 18:00 UTC
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Gilmour Space's Eris rocket reach space on the first attempt?
37% chance
Will a rocket built by PLD space ever put a payload into orbit?
64% chance
Will Astra's Rocket 4 ever achieve orbit?
8% chance
Will Relativity Space conduct a successful static fire of Terran R in 2024?
2% chance
Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?
Will Astra's Rocket 4 achieve orbit on its first launch?
15% chance
Relativity Space Fails by December 31, 2025
51% chance
Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2025?
13% chance
Will Rocket Lab launch Neutron in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
30% chance
Will Rocket Lab successfully reuse an Electron Booster by EOY 2025?
58% chance