How do you define a civil war?

At least two sides engaging in battles with significant casualties. Fatalaties more than 500 at least.

I feel like this criteria is way too open to interpretation, there are many categorisations that could be chosen for this, for example if these were individual murders on the street, but they tally up to 500 before 2029 would it count? It’s quite difficult to categorise

Hmm. Good point. Deaths have to be due to political violence. And there has to be at least some propper military action with multiple sides. Not just an uptick in lone dog murders or terrorists.

It is still a bit elusive. How about something resembling the gang warfare happening in Sweden? They use military equipment, rifles, grenades, explosives and the casualties approach your number over multiple years. What if the British groups do something similar against each other?

It has to be political violence. Not just gangs.

And we will say the 500 fatalities have to happen in a twelve month period.

By political violence do you mean named and organised groups committing violence? If an anti-immigration group and a group of counter protestors clash does this count towards the total?

Yes. Organised military groups. It depends. Clases between anti-immigration groups and counter protesters would only count if they have militarized.

Okay, my view is that a civil war in the UK would be unlikely to ever reach the point of militarised groups on both sides because there are very few guns here, it’s a very small country in terms of landmass, and anything at that scale would be quashed by the police or the army pretty quickly. I could see an IRA type of thing, which I would personally say was within a broad definition of a civil war

I'll trust Musk's predictions on the future when I'm taking my Optimus robot for a spin in a Robotaxi.