In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
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3.8k
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2028
40%
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EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

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bought Ṁ50 NO from 38% to 37%
bought Ṁ500 YES
bought Ṁ2,100 NO
bought Ṁ1,050 YES from 37% to 39%

@ZaneMiller That was not even created with a single prompt, nor with a single AI.

@ZaneMiller definitely showing the medium term promise of generative AI as a

major element within the content and even cinema creation pipelines.

Doesn’t make this market on track to resolve yes of course, as David Bolin rightly pointed out.

bought Ṁ50 YES
bought Ṁ250 NO at 37%

@ZaneMiller Each individual scene is super impressive, but there is not a single shot longer than 5 seconds in that entire 2:18 video. For all the hype and "exponential progress" talk, this has been the case since they announced Sora 1.5 years ago. Can't make a video longer than 10s without weird shit happening in it.

From the Midjourney discord:

As you know, our focus for the past few years has been images. What you might not know, is that we believe the inevitable destination of this technology are models capable of real-time open-world simulations.

What’s that? Basically; imagine an AI system that generates imagery in real-time. You can command it to move around in 3D space, the environments and characters also move, and you can interact with everything.

In order to do this, we need building blocks. We need visuals (our first image models). We need to make those images move (video models). We need to be able to move ourselves through space (3D models) and we need to be able to do this all fast (real-time models).

The next year involves building these pieces individually, releasing them, and then slowly, putting it all together into a single unified system. It might be expensive at first, but sooner than you’d think, it’s something everyone will be able to use.

So what about today? Today, we’re taking the next step forward. We’re releasing Version 1 of our Video Model to the entire community.

@robm https://x.com/emollick/status/1935504703023899096

at this point a midjourney 2028 video will be better than a Love, Death, Robotics Short on Netflix

better than a Love, Death, Robotics Short on Netflix

@Blomfilter A static black screen is better than LD&R on Netflix. Wasn't the last season done by LLMs btw? It definitely had the signature inane feel

@skibidist you're right, last season was ass, i paid 10$ for month subscription and only watched the 1 short about the spider girl in space...(based off teh short story) still though, space shorts , i'm a sucker for

https://www.reddit.com/r/midjourney/comments/1li6chu/midjourney_video_is_insane_for_ai_films/

its gonna get so good

@jim Never.

As in literally never. No one will do this; it does not matter whether it is possible or not, because no one is that stupid (except you, and it is unlikely you will make any games.)

@DavidBolin We shall excise thinking machine from the world. Deus vult

someone already did it https://oasis-ai.org/

it's just not super successful yet

@jim That’s not a game, it’s an interactive art project

bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 37% to 36%
bought Ṁ100 NO

@SimoneRomeo garbage

https://blog.google/technology/google-deepmind/ancestra-behind-the-scenes/

"To create “ANCESTRA”, Google DeepMind assembled a multidisciplinary creative team of animators, art directors, designers, writers, technologists and researchers who worked closely with more than 200 experts in traditional filmmaking and production, a live-action crew and cast, plus an editorial team, visual effects (VFX) artists, sound designers and music composers."

It's pretty cool that they did this, but it's a long way from generating a movie from a prompt. And the final result is only eight minutes long!

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Less than six minutes, plus title and credits.

opened aṀ170,000NO at 40% order

@Joshua hell ya

https://youtu.be/US2gO7UYEfY?si=vl5KCshO7cog4WUL

The WSJ made an AI video. But every shot required a lot of human effort to stitch outputs from different tools together and select a final clip that actually worked.

The script was also not AI generated, though I don't think that's the hardest part.

Total compute cost: ~$1000 for a three minute video.

bought Ṁ100 NO at 36%

@TimothyJohnson5c16 ...and the end result is way worse than a mediocre filmmaking student project. Can we have the market go to 10% already

@TimothyJohnson5c16 we're a month or two away from the halfway point of this market. I think this is a good marker of where things are now.

@skibidist when you figure out that you're wrong about this market in the second half of 2027 will you go quiet in the comments or will you try and shift the goalposts to something nonsensical?

@NebulaByte Probably the former since I would be 1) mana-bankrupt and 2) busy watching stargate/serenity cross-overs .. however I doubt there is a single timeline in the multiverse where that is realized

@skibidist can you write a prompt for said Stargate/Serenity crossovers 😄

Good taste

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