Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Basic
8
Ṁ6202029
2%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.
Question is global -- charges in any country count.
Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
5% chance
Will Elon Musk be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
30% chance
In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
16% chance
Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030?
26% chance
Will Sam Altman be charged with a felony crime before 2030?
22% chance
Will Elie Hassenfeld (Co-Founder and CEO of GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
3% chance
Will Sam Altman be charged with a felony crime before 2025?
4% chance
Will Richard Heart (Richard James Schueler) be charged of any felony crime before 2030?
77% chance
Will Geoff Anders (Director at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
15% chance
Will Luke Muehlhauser (Open Philanthropy, AI governance) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
2% chance