In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
Plus
22
Ṁ7082040
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For the purposes of this question, something is a "tragic mistake" if it seems so from the perspective of Karnosfky in 2040. So if rapid spending seemed the best course of action in expectation to Karnofsky_2022 but Karnofsky_2040 disagrees, this question resolves positively. If a question is later created on Metaculus to firm up tricky edge cases, I'll probably use those resolution criteria for this question as well.
This question will resolve to either 0% or to 100% if Karnofsky makes any unambiguous statements on the topic, or to my own best judgment of what he actually thinks if he is being evasive.
Close date updated to 2040-03-10 11:59 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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