Will there be serious AI safety drama at Meta AI before 2026?
➕
Plus
28
Ṁ719
2026
58%
chance

AI safety meaning AI not killeveryoneism, not racism/bad words etc.

The drama has to be at least somewhat public facing.

The qualification of 'serious' will be in my judgment. I won't place any bets.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

What if it's not bad words or notkilleveryoneism but something intermediate like chemical weapons?

Base rate is low, as far as I remember none ever happened at Microsoft, Amazon, Apple or Google (nor at Google Brain, Google Deepmind). OpenAI seems to attract this to a large degree, for some reason, but it's a newer company.

@SemioticRivalry Does the drama need to be internal? Like alternatively it could be that some external entity tell meta folks to do AI safety a certain way and they object publicly in a dramaful way

@Bayesian preferably internal, or if external it would have to be a significant news story, like would my parents have heard about it

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules