Examples of things that would qualify:
Postponing the election by three months or more (past the full 4-year term)
Banning one or more (nontrivial) parties from running (e.g. banning one of the main Arab parties)
Introducing significant barriers to voting (e.g. removing voting booths from most Arab towns or making election day not be a holiday)
This isn't a universal description, but that's the minimum level of severity for this to settle as yes. Will answer whether any other hypotheticals raised in the comments count. I will not be betting in this market.
It's worth considering this proposed law change: banning parties will not require supreme court ruling
https://twitter.com/amsterdamski2/status/1684642253443137536
@AaronKreider This is a market about Israel becoming less democratic than previously. Not about whether Israel is democratic (Israel is a racist apartheid state - of course the US is also a racist very segregated state)