If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
Plus
14
Ṁ9582026
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The resolution source is the Southwest Land Border Encounters series by the US border Patrol.
If Trump does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A.
I will use the number shown on the site upon release of the data for all of FY 2025. Note that it appears that this dataset does get updated retroactively. The earliest available data will be used (excluding projections)
Partner market for Biden:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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