Will Elon Musk no longer be the head of DOGE by 2026?
Basic
28
Ṁ1523
2026
81%
chance

Resolve YES if Musk is no longer head of the Department of Government Efficiency by Jan 1, 2026

  • Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - Market End Date: January 1, 2026 (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Clarification (2025-03-05): It is understood that Musk has only informally been DOGE head. The bet is about losing "whatever status he has had since the contract creation", which would include the informal one. To resolve yes, he must lack both formal status and informal recognition as DOGE head, as judged from credible media reports.

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https://www.vox.com/politics/400096/elon-musk-doge-head-senior-adviser-judge-chutkan

Formally or informally? Because formally it seems he isn't and never has been.

@Weepinbell The bet is about losing "whatever status he has had since the contract creation", which would include the informal one. To resolve yes, he must lack both formal status and informal recognition as DOGE head, as judged from credible media reports.

Sorry just updated this so it ends Jan 1 2026. I assume that's what all of you expected anyway.

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