There is a really bad flaw in this market... it's a dependent choice market, meaning only one option can be chosen, yet we have the "someone who is currently dead" option along with options like "Hal Finney" and "Len Sassaman," who are both dead.

@Sinclair Can you please resolve "someone who is currently dead" to N/A? Given that only one option can be chosen here, if it turns out to be Sassaman or Finney, it's impossible to resolve this market in a consistent fashion.

@mods Requesting that option be resolved to N/A, as the market creator appears to be inactive.

@Mana The market creator is literally a manifold employee. But it's dependent, so it should just be marked invalid, it can't be NAed.

@Mana I will just rename the option to [Invalid] on behalf of the creator, and I'll be the one in trouble if @Sinclair is not happy about it.

25-25-50 betwen szabo, finney, and the field

Better multi market structure version of this market, but resolves later. Plus all markets will resolve, no N/A https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-any-of-the-following-be-confir

Potentially relevant to the resolvability:

Related:

What if it was a collab

@JonathanRay what if it wasn't, what if Satoshi Nakamoto was a single person, with that same name, and he just moved on with his life, how does this market resolve in that case?

@VAPOR Hal Finney in fact lived a few blocks away from someone with that actual name.

Some said that person was the inventor of Bitcoin but he absolutely denied it.

Either it was that person, or Finney took the name from that person, which second thing would make it Finney.

@DavidBolin This has always seemed like almost conclusive evidence for me in favor of Finney. Surely even before we learned this fact he had to be one of the top candidates. But what is the likelihood of this being just a coincidence? Name statistics sites tell me that 1 in 500 Japanese people have the name "Satoshi" and 1 in 2500 have the name "Nakamoto". This suggests that 1 in 1,250,000 people with a Japanese name have the name "Satoshi Nakamoto", maybe 100 or so people worldwide, mostly in Japan.

@BoltonBailey I agree and think it is almost certainly (>90%) Finney. But not betting here because I don't trust the missing resolution criteria.

@DavidBolin Or someone else who knew finney took the name just to confuse people. The suspected satoshis mostly knew each other

@JonathanRay Finney specifically has other advantages.

(1) You don't spend money when you are dead
(2) He presumably plans to recover the bitcoin when he is revived

@JonathanRay Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto lived in Hal Finney's childhood town, so it is not obviously likely that the other cypherpunks would have known that name.

Actually, re-reading the Forbes article now, I see that in one place it says they lived "a few blocks away", but in another it says they lived "about 1.6 miles from each other", which just seems inconsistent, and has massive implications for the likelihood. 🫤

@BoltonBailey It's strong evidence for Finney, but people who were close to him say it's not him.

@ElmerFudd True, and he denied it himself. But OTOH, Nakamoto already maintained an impressive degree of anonymity. Perhaps we should expect that this is exactly what his friends and family would say even if he was Nakamoto, either because Finney kept his alter ego from them or asked them to keep his secret.

Is there an option for remaining anonymous?

@jack indeed