I'm running the East Coast Rationalist Megameetup, a gathering of about a hundred rationalists the weekend of December 14th and coinciding with the New York City Secular Solstice. Inevitably, something is going to go wrong. Murphy is a rotten jerk. The question is, what's the worst thing that's going to happen? "Worst" here is entirely subjective in my opinion as organizer, but it will resolve to the worst three things that do come to pass.

I'm going to be upfront. I'm plan to actively avert answers that start looking likely by trying to prepare and prevent them. If the knowledge this market grants helps me avert a disaster, I'll find some way to send a bit of mana to the traders in appreciation.

I am aware this might incentivize a no-good rotten assassination market style approach of writing something terrible and then ensuring it comes to pass. Consider the following: 1. you could instead write something a little bit annoying them ensure that nothing worse happens and 2. that would make me sad.