Elon Musk has expressed intention to create a new political party
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930685402631053403?s=46&t=mr67c6cgUP2ic11sukpB0g
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially establishes a new political party in the United States by December 31, 2025. For the purpose of this market, a political party is defined an organization that coordinates candidates to compete in American elections and doesn’t require governmental recognition.
Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The criterion 'Elon Musk officially establishes a new political party' will be met if Elon Musk is an official founding member of such a party, even if he is not the sole or primary person responsible for its establishment.
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market may resolve to Yes even if the entity does not coordinate candidates for any elections, as long as it is widely recognized as a political party.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In ambiguous cases, the distinction between a 'political party' and an 'organization' will be determined by media consensus.
1,000
3.00In a first-past-the-post voting system, creating a 3rd party would be the equivalent to saying, "if I'm going down, I'm taking you with me!" to the Republican party.
It would split the vote of their voting base, causing a spoiler effect, effectively handing power to the next biggest party, the Democrats. Some voters would peel off into Musk's party, and some loyalists would stay with the Republicans. A house divided will fall -- Democrats would be the biggest party when the dust settles.
Musk's threat is a proverbial dead-man switch.
@Quroe I think it's more likely that Elon sets up an organization to reform the Republican party with a focus on electing candidates who will balance the budget. And based on the criteria, that still counts, even if it's not an official party.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'm aware that it can be tough to make the distinction between "party" and "organization" in those circumstances, I'll try my best to resolve in the most fair manner using media consensus
@Quroe Elon knows that he doesn't have to create a national party. As long as it can win anywhere in the country, it would have enormous leverage:
@Yakushi12345 The description says it just needs to be "coordinating candidates to compete in American elections", so wouldn't a campaign to primary Republicans count?
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I used the wikipedia definition of a political party, honestly even if no elections are held but it's widely recognized as a party and not an org it will resolve as yes
He walked back his walkback even further. I'm no armchair psychologist but this seems like it was a classic case of hypomania.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PaL38q9a4e8Bzsh3S/elon-musk-may-be-transitioning-to-bipolar-type-i
He deleted his Epstein tweet yet his tweets announcing a new political party are still live.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1931112942495523014
IMO way underpriced currently but not willing to stake tons of my mana on Elon markets since I nearly lost that crazy Tesla Stock price one lol.
@WillJevons well whatever you're willing to stake, i put a limit up near market price, fill however much you'd like!
