https://x.com/craigzLiszt/status/1891267828436607420

I hope it is linkedIN 🤞🏼

Cool question! Typo in the title: “loose” > “lose”

@oh thank you for the tip!

didn't this already happen

Technically it hasn't existed for a year so no, but yes it's already lost most of its users so this should resolve to it as soon as it has existed for a year.

@Marnix no it did not happen yet since we would have to compare average monthly active users in 2023 with 2024. the earliest we can resolve this for Threads would be 2025

@Joshua see above

@Soli Hmmm I am a bit confused by this clarification. I would think that you would compare the numbers from July 2023 to the numbers in July 2024, and if the MAU is less than half then Threads would resolve yes. Is that not how it works? What would the exact formula be?

@Joshua I was hoping the word average would make it clear. I am not interested in temporary dips. Your proposed formula is not average but rather “Which of the following platforms will report any month with 50% less active monthly users YoY” but this is not the question

@Joshua I am interested in the average which can be calculated by taking # of active monthly users divided by number of months (12 in most cases and less for Threads)

@Soli Right, but Threads has only existed since July. Exact numbers are hard to find, but let's assume it's 100 Million in July and 25 Million every month after that.

So... the average MAU for Threads would be (100 +25*5)/6 = 37.5 million for 2023? And then in 2024 it would need to have an average MAU of 37.5/2 = 18.75 million or less?

@Joshua yes this is what I had in mind

@Soli Okay gotcha.