Related: https://manifold.markets/yeeta/will-donald-trump-complete-his-seco

Will Donald Trump complete his second presidential term (2025–2029)?

Completes full term Trump remains President and alive through January 20, 2029, and peacefully transfers power on or before that date as required by the Constitution. Staying in office beyond January 20, 2029 for any reason will not count as completing a full term. Does not complete term Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 by resignation, impeachment, 25th Amendment process, legal action, incapacity, voluntary hand-over, exile, coup, or any other non-fatal removal, and remains alive. If Trump is still claiming presidential authority after Jan 20, 2029, thus not ‘completing’ his term, the market will resolve to this option. Dies of natural causes or illness Trump dies from disease, aging, or any internal medical cause while serving as President. Dies from assassination or external violence Trump dies as a result of assassination, attack, or any external act of violence while serving as President. Resolution Notes: Outcome determined by official announcements and consensus from major news outlets. “Completes full term” requires Trump to leave office on or before January 20, 2029. “Does not complete term” includes any non-fatal early departure. “Natural causes or illness” = any internal medical cause (includes accidents not provably violent). “Assassination or external violence” = any fatal external attack (includes e.g. air crashes provably caused by hostile intent). This market is for predictive purposes only and does not advocate or endorse any outcome.

US life tables: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf. Pres. Trump is a 78 year old non-hispanic white man: my calculations (and note that I am definitely not an actuary and might have made mistakes) based on table 17 suggest his probability of dying within the next five years is about 29%. I would guess he is in better-than-average health.

His father lived to 93. His mother lived to 88. However, pointing in the other direction, his brothers both passed away at younger ages (42 and 71).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-dan-bongino-secret-service-b2650913.html

I don't know if this will resolve yes, but it will be higher than this at some point

Do you intend for the market to close at end of year 2024?

@Quroe the market closes when trump is replaced or by the end of his term - i updated the end date now

Would this 6-minute CGP Grey video convince you to hold off on resolving this market for some amount of time after Trump leaves office to confirm if it was for health reasons?

https://youtu.be/ig_qpNfXHIU?si=_yOLTBr6BXdi8BXq

Also, what is the definition of "illness" we're playing by here? --Just to make sure we're all in agreement.

What counts as an illness? To take it to the ridiculous argumentative extreme, one could argue that an assassin wanted to create quite the health risk for him.

@Quroe thank you for sharing the video, i will watch the video later. i think your second question is covered by the description.

so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.

@Quroe i watched the video very interesting, if I understand correctly you are implying Trump could fake sickness to pass on the torch to Vance (and not one of his actual family members), is this correct?

Not quite. I'm arguing that he would not show sickness in an attempt to show strength. He wouldn't want people to usurp him.

We probably wouldn't know about an illness until much later.

@Quroe makes sense but no this wouldn’t matter for the market (check my previous comment which explains why)

so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.