Will the GPT4+code-interpreter+search score > 1350 on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard?
Will the GPT4+code-interpreter+search score > 1350 on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard?
Basic
2
Ṁ19
2026
49%
chance

As Bard ranked as high as 1215 on Lmsys Leaderboard, it leaves people wonder what GPT4 plus all the agents ability currently served on the website can achieve in terms of user preference?

Resolve to NA if it was not on the leaderboard by EOY 2025

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

Tricky part about this question, though, is I think "1350" will depend on the scores of other models. It isn't set exactly what 1350 means. Might make more sense to say something like "will score 100 points more than model XXX".

But even then, this might actually be a tricky one to resolve because it's not clear that they'd add a search-enabled version that is an identical base model. So they might have, like, old models competing against a new model that also has search enabled.

(Also how the models score is going to depend on the mix of questions that end up being used in the arena. If people start skewing their questions towards things where the search part helps. So maybe with today's question mix it would get 1275 ELO, but if people start specifically asking questions around this functionality it would get 1400 ELO.)

1y

I am talking about search-enabled version

I would assume the same base model, but different instruction tuning to better use function calls?

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules